Sunday 18 October 2020

Mysterious Inspiration

 


Most of us have experienced inspiring moments when a great idea appears out of the blue. Most of the most of us then doubt and muse in disbelief, and the great idea vanishes until discovered by someone else. Creativity depends on execution as well as inspiration.


Compared with ‘deductive or analytical intelligence’ such as the ability to figure out five plus six after learning one plus one, creativity is abstract, even mysterious and spiritual. Spiritual? Yeah, seriously.


创意灵媒


很多人都經歷過如有神助的「靈感」一刻,及時把握的話可以引發「創意」。但捕捉「靈感」並不容易,猶疑之間,「靈感」隨時消失,只留下輕微熱量隨著腦電波逝去。由「靈感」帶動的思潮與一般思考不同,屬「創意」範疇,並非抽絲剝繭的邏輯分析。


「靈感」哪來的呢?「靈感」一詞雖然經常被亂用濫用,但實際上就如字面所說,是「靈性的感覺」,是形而上的「靈機一觸」。有那麼玄?有!簡直玄之又玄!


英語的 inspiration,同樣神秘。據說 inspire 一字,源於上帝含著「阿當」用灰塵造的鼻子,一口氣把靈魂吹進他體內,中東人的始祖才開始「有肉有靈」,正式做人。上帝把當爺爺的「灰塵鼻」放嘴裡肯定需要愛心支持,而「塵化人」這一招創意無限,沒有靈感的人是無法想象出來的。看來,我們的祖先,不分中外,都比現代人更瞭解「靈感」的本質。


Monday 29 June 2020

臆想国安法



《港版国安法》出台,越看越精彩。本来觉得事情已经在专业领导手中,无需边吃瓜边插嘴了,但我对一些执行细节和目标的臆想,好像没有什么人谈及,所以忍不住又要多口。


港式汉奸只不过一群贪生怕死的小人,对国际政治文化毫无认识,以为蟑螂可以假借纸老虎发威,愚蠢程度不可思议。现在看见国安法的影子,屁滚尿流鸟兽散是意料中事,不值一提。既然不值一提,那就不浪费篇幅了。


我倒觉得一般港人和香港的所谓“建制派”应该清楚认识这重大里程碑,把握时机,停止投机取巧,为香港的复原和真正回归做实事。假如政棍一族以为有阿爷作靠山,可以继续不务正业,单靠一声“爱国”指天笃地的话,则大错特错矣。


A Money Story



Most of us have been too busy making money to give it much thought. To diehard capitalists, money is everything, something which one can never have too much of. But is it?


What is money?


Money is a trade medium and value unit. I have a cow; you have a hundred bushels of onion. You want to eat beef, while I need onion for my soup, but we still can’t barter successfully. With money, you can buy my cow. I used a small portion of the proceeds to buy a kilo of onion from you, and save the rest for other things. Unfortunately, some people get stuck in the process, and hang on to the money, the more the better — feeling rich is a great capitalistic feeling. 


Once upon a time, shells were used as currency in China (except in coastal areas, I assume). I can imagine some people selling all their cows for a good price, and plan their retirements accordingly. Then came Qin Shi Huang, who invented a national currency. Suddenly, Tycoon Wang with a houseful of shells couldn’t buy a steamed bun with it. Overnight, he was broke.


Hyperinflation


When people have lost confidence in a currency, hyperinflation results. History has witnessed hyperinflation multiple times in nearly every country — from China to America, Israel to Germany. In the 1940s, my father had to carry baskets of money to the market. Vendors weighed the bills in exchange for vegetables, rather than wasting time counting them filthy notes.


Once confidence in a currency has collapsed, money is just paper — wastepaper.


What is money without economic activities?


Practically nothing. Imagine being a fugitive banker stuck in an island without import and export, and very little production. Your suitcase of dollars is only good for counting and recounting to kill time.


A common misconception is that if a country manages to produce everything in this world, and eventually monopolise the global “free” market, it will eventually make all the money in the world, and be rich beyond imagination. But what could this country do with the money? Mostly just to buy things from itself, using money printed by others. This country would become a global slave with lots of “money”. 


A healthy equilibrium is when there is true multi-polar productivity, from everyone's perspective.


The USD Formula


How did the greenback become the international reserve currency? Confidence of course. In the beginning, that confidence had a lot do with American innovation, productivity and military power. Anyone who wanted some of the great stuff from America better go make some US dollars. Otherwise, no matter how much Congolese Francs you offered, they won’t sell. Gradually, under the influence of human nature and due devolution, America decided to let others sweat. They focused on printing money instead, and became addicted to it.


But what would happen when the world doesn’t need American dollars for all the good things available elsewhere? Henry Kissinger had a good idea. If all the oil producers accept only American dollars, then demand for the currency can be sustained, as everyone needs oil. The Petrodollar was born. What if some oil producers refuse? Ask Saddam Hussein of Iraq, Gaddafi of Libya, Iran, and Venezuela.


American Debts


The mind-numbing mechanics by which USD is generated has been well explained by numerous pundits. I wish to focus on a fatuous threat brandished by some really dumb politicians: sequester China’s one trillion plus American bonds. Sure, go ahead.


Let’s first see how China ends up with so much American dollars.


There are two main sources: foreign investment and trade surplus. Foreign investors come to China to build factories, taking with them a bunch of dollars. They must first exchange it to the Chinese currency RMB. Greenback becomes red notes — paper for paper. With RMB in hand, they can now rent land, build factories, hire workers, and start production. Employment is created, invigorating the economy. 


China uses the greenback received to buy oil, minerals, advanced equipment, computer chips, soybeans, GM corn etc. — whatever it needs. What’s left is saved in US Treasury Bonds. America of course knows that money without use is as good as garbage, so whatever China wants to buy in America would be re-classified as something with security significance.


After spending as much as possible on purchases and foreign aids, China still has about one trillion stashed away in US Treasury Bonds. It sounds like a huge sum, and it is. But the true value of this money — value which can only be realised through labour and participation — has long been realised inside China, and multiplied manyfold. What’s left is mostly, you know, just money with no immediate purpose. 


Furthermore, if the US robbed this phantom wealth from China, will other debt owners just watch and exclaim? And what would happen if China as a result has no option but to refuse USD for trade? Would the Middle East revolt at the same time? In that scenario, we can quite safely assume that the Great American Empire would falter dramatically. American taxpayers spent two trillion on Iraq for reasons only they understand. To bring down the most warlike Empire on Earth for a trillion would be a fantastic deal.


Widespread war waged by an irate Empire is of course a concern. But how many countries can it invade with its kamikaze F35? More importantly, the Euro and Yen, even the Pound Sterling, have been waiting for their rightful share in the currency basket for a long long time, while getting bullied by Big Brother.


The Greenback’s Final Assault


According to the Washington Post, which is not always credible, the mysterious financial mechanism in America has produced about six trillion new money to jump start the post Covid-19 economy. Some say it’s only three trillion — only three trillion! Has anyone seen the money?


In modern America, nobody knows where any money goes. I can only venture a wild guess. Money is not the true substance of wealth; only labour and productivity can sustain prosperity. But under the current world order, money, especially American money, can still buy ownership of productivity and resources. Now that the greenback’s days are numbered, its printers are working overtime to produce prodigious amounts of it, to buy up as much as they can. 


If that’s true, we’ll see hyperinflation of assets and equities for a while, followed by hyper-devaluation of the USD — the most effective way to default on the Empire’s impossible debts.


James Tam 2020.06.09

钱作怪




国际上有关钱的假动作太多,令人眼花缭乱,心惊胆跳,不敢看不敢想。但我对恐怖事物有偏爱,决定把碎片拼合,组织自己的幻觉。


问世间钱为何物?

钱是交易的媒介和等量单位。假如我有一头牛,你有一百擔洋葱,虽然你想吃牛肉,我想吃洋葱,但以货易货很难成交。有货币作媒介,你可以用钱买我的牛,我只用一少部分收入跟你买一斤洋葱,余款用来买其他东西,或储蓄起来。古代的内陆居民曾用贝壳担当货币功能。但假如有人把辛苦养大的牛通通好价卖掉,一心做个“守贝奴”过世的话,会在秦始皇出现后瞬间破产,只剩下一箩箩的贝壳。昨天足够买整栋房子的宝贝,今天买不到一个馒头。


恶性通胀

人们对一种货币失去信心,便会导致恶性通胀,这在秦始皇之后发生过 N 次,几乎所有国家,由中国到美国,以色列到德意志,都经历过。我父亲的一代,解放前也有过一斤钱换一斤菜的经历,钱不值钱的时候,大家也懒得数了。


货币的交易功能全凭信心和管理支撑。货币一旦失去公信便成废纸,或废电子。


没有经济支撑的钱是什么?

什么也不是。 试想你有亿亿万世人热爱的金钱,但生活在一个与世隔绝的荒岛。孤岛没有生产,没有进出口贸易,你的钱什么也买不到,只可以用来擦屁股。


由此可以引申到一个较常见的错觉:有人以为国家早晚有能力生产一切,到时把全世界的钱都赚回来:哇!发达啰!他们没有想过赚回来的钱用来干嘛。拿着大量外币跟自己买波鞋?所以,全球分工是必然现象,也是我们希望的现象,否则情愿闭关。当然,战略性物资和生产能力一定要掌握在自己手中,但其余的生产力和市场份额,按比例合理分配才是健康的财富平衡。整体市场份额过大,大小通杀,只不过劳役自己。换来一大堆没出路的钱,比便秘更难受更伤身。

美元方程式

美元靠什么称霸呢?早期靠全球一致的信心,而信心来自美国当年庞大的创造力,生产力,和军事能力。想买美国出产的好东西?先赚点儿美元再说吧,否则你给更多刚果法郎也不卖,就是那么简单。后来美国吃太饱,竟然想出妙招:干活那么辛苦,何不让人家流汗,自己拼命印刷大家都接受了的美元,便可以呼风唤雨,空手套白狼,过瘾!


但这样下去,美国出产的好东西越来越少,美元需求自然减退,怎生是好?基辛格聪明,搞了石油美元。在全世界买原油都要用美元结算,美元还愁没需求?那么卖石油的不接受美元怎办?这方面可以找个灵媒,向伊拉克的侯赛因和利比亚的卡塔菲讨教一下。随着时代进步,霸主无所事事,想出来的洗劫方式五花百门,不胜枚举。这里只不过以卡通形式点出大纲。


美债故事

美债故事和美元的生产工序已经有很多真懂的人介绍过。有兴趣可以网上搜寻。我想探讨的是很多国人担心的问题:假如美国把我们万多亿的美债一口吞了怎办?血汗钱哦!


先看看我们为什么有这么多美元,和这些美元的血汗值。


中国手中的美元有两个大来源:外国投资和贸易顺差。美国公司拿着一叠美元来华投资,找人代替出汗,但美元不能在中国通用,唯有去人民银行兑换,绿纸换红纸,两不相欠。换过我们定价的人民币之后,投资者租地招工盖工厂,把生产力和经验转移到中国,提升工业能力,制造就业,打开市场,搞活经济。谢谢。


人民银行拿着这些美元,四处购买原油矿石,大豆芯片,多余的便暂买美债。但中国人勤奋,生产力强,手上的美元越来越多,一部分发放到一带一路建设,助人助己,一举数得。偶尔会有几个穷兄弟无力偿还。这不打紧,看远一点,迟些再算。江湖上多交几个朋友,得道多助,反正美元是名副其实的身外物。


一万亿美债听来数目惊人,但金钱能够换来的“内涵”价值,早在中国落地生根,开枝散叶,多年来翻了不知几十倍了。贸易顺差赚来的美元得益相对较少,但原理相近。所以,能够及时适量减持美债最好,否则也并非世界末日。


再者,美国够胆赖债吗?抢了中国持的美债,其他国家会若无其事吗?要知道,财富的基础是生产,是资源,不是纸币。假如强抢导致中国停止接受美元,一切交易用人民币、其它可信货币或实物资源进行;又假如石油大国趁机起义,也拒收美元的话,帝国就此完蛋。根据美国专家估计,他们打伊拉克一共消耗了两万亿。能够以一万亿纸币的代价打垮纸老虎的话,简直便宜得有点儿过意不去。


霸主一怒之下,为美钞而战怎办?飞几次掉一次的超级神风战机F35,能打多少个国家?更重要的是,欧罗日元一大堆都会乘虚而入,在全球新秩序霸一席位。绝大部分的纸扎盟友们除了嘴巴响亮,会两肋插刀帮助多年来把自己欺负得难过死的大佬吗?


美元的最后发难

华盛顿邮报(https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/15/coronavirus-economy-6-trillion/)估算美国为了疫情,过去几个月一共狂印六万亿。不理他三万五万还是六万亿,这些疯狂数字已经毫无意义,也令大众失去感觉。这货币海啸据说是用来抗疫,刺激经济,太搞笑了吧!美国老百姓反正一毛钱也见不到。那么钱都哪去呢?美国人民都不知道,我怎会知道?


但我不介意胡乱猜度:纸币只是财富的暂时缓冲,生产力和资源才是真正的财富。但暂时来说,在资本主义主导的秩序下,虚无的纸币仍然可以购买生产力和资源的拥有权。心知美元命不久矣的大佬们于是决定发难,赶紧在临危一刻找个借口疯狂发钞,以无限美元全球抢购,把随时可变废纸的货币转换成资产。在几万亿美元洪水的冲击下,股票资产飙升的话,完全不犯逻辑。


大冲洗一轮之后,随之而来的是美元大贬值。这是最实在的赖债方式:昨天你借我一亿,价值整栋洋房,今天我还你一亿,只可以买间狗屋。


谭炳昌 2020.06.07


Friday 5 June 2020

The 2nd Worst Scenario of a Sino-US Split




Momentary disruptions caused by a forced divorce with the US may be a catalyst for China to restore its historical position. 

What is China’s historical position? Let’s examine some features which defined and sustained the ancient civilisation for most of past millennia.

中美博弈的第二最差結局



中美博弈猶如兩個高手比武,驚心動魄。雙方擁躉一時鼓掌,一時驚叫。有切身關係的旁觀者,好比下了賭注的觀眾,心情被拳來拳往牽動。看見自己的拳師打中對方一拳,立即拍腿歡呼;中了人家一招,則高聲怪叫,好像世界末日。這些情緒是人之常情,也可以營造賽事氣氛,但對賽果影響不大,倒不如專心欣賞,有需要時在旁加油打氣,最重要是保持信心, 團結一致。

信心哪來呢?

Sunday 3 May 2020

賺美匯購美債永續不息?



特朗普兩年前發動中美貿易戰,認為中國一直透過與美國的貿易順差賺取美國人的錢,而又不願意在大量購買美國商品,令美國人吃了大虧,必須向中國揮動關稅大棒,迫令中國簽訂不平等貿易條約,讓美國重新偉大。另一方面,很多中國人覺得辛勤勞動,把大批商品以低廉的價格供應美國人消費,賺取的美元換回海量的美債白條,美國人不勞獲享受成果而繼續稱霸,肯定是中國人吃了大虧才是。

塞翁失馬、焉知非福,要說清當中的利弊得失並不容易,或者可從公司企業的損益表(Income Statement)與資產負債表(Balance Sheet)的概念尋找啟示。

Sunday 26 April 2020

One Planet Two Morals



There are two main streams of moral traditions — one idealistic and absolute, the other relatively pragmatic and flexible. Each is a product of history and cultural perspective.

Absolutely, from God to Man

About six thousand years ago, God switched on the light, made things, and authorised humans to reign over them. Man was supposedly in charge of the world, which wasn’t exactly the entire universe — something we still don’t know much about, but pretend we do. Subsequently, God gave religious peoples the foundation of their moral codes. Nothing too complicated, but thou shalt not kill or steal is universally sensible, and works well if followed honestly.

Gradually, science nudges God off His throne. Humans take over, and steadily expand their God-given birthrights to reign over fish and birds. They march to conquer strange lands, funny heathens, the oceans, and nature in general, singing war songs.

Nonetheless, God’s exit has left an empty spot in their psyche, a vacancy which physics and chemistry can’t fill. After centuries of spiritual dependence, the urge to believe in something doesn’t go away easy. Moral excuses are needed to justify actions, many of which detrimental to themselves and others.

In cartoons, funny characters saw doggedly at the branch they’re perching on. In real life, Homo sapiens exploit their one and only living environment for short-term gains, and call it human achievement. Meanwhile, political ideologies have replaced religion, rationalising the killing and destruction of heathens. In man’s hand, morals have become more arbitrary, manipulative, and impractical.

And impractical ideals inevitably lead to hypocrisy and fanaticism. 

Supporters of specious doctrines seldom “act as they preach” because, well, what they preach is not always practicable. But stepping back to rethink is sacrilegious. Moral principles are tautologically and absolutely good, uncompromisable. An ideal is a perfect end-point to strive for. Revising something perfect is yielding to the dark side, not incremental refinement. Unfortunately, to loyally defend untenable beliefs and infeasible ideas is the first step to fanaticism.

非常道德观


当今世上有两种主流道德观,各有各的历史成因和文化背景。第一种比较绝对和理想化,第二种比较实际,注重探索。


源于上帝,绝对理想

据圣经所述,大概六千年前,上帝说要有光,便即时有光。可惜四周没有反光体,依旧渺冥无明。上帝于是创造万物,最后附加男女组合阿当与夏娃,让他们在伊甸园快乐逍遥,为所欲为,但不准吃苹果,原因不明。无奈这对祖先天生好奇,偏偏把禁果吃掉。上帝怒责之余,却仍然让他们凌驾世界,但要从此知羞,穿衣蔽体。不许在公共场所裸体,可能是最原始的道德要求。后来为了部落秩序,上帝颁布无杀人,无偷盗等戒条,进一步规范道德。十戒内容颇合情理,大众无话可说,反正不服者杀无赦。

转眼几千年,人类长了知识,略懂科学,开始摆脱造物主的精神枷锁,自把自为日久,逐渐野心膨胀,把天赋特权无限扩张,除了统治鱼虾野兽,铲高山镇海洋,臣服异族,更扬言要征服大自然,甚至宇宙,以显人类力量,把不知天高地厚这话发挥得淋漓尽致。

Wednesday 15 April 2020

China Will Never Rule the World


Around 400 BCE, Thucydides analysed the history of Greek inter-city strife, and concluded that war is nearly inevitable between a rising power and the incumbent. This so-called Thucydides trap is not only difficult to say, but also anachronistic and misleading when it comes to the avoidable rivalry between China and America today. 

In scale and complexity, the competition between Sparta and Athens at Thucydides’ time, with a combined total population of a few hundred thousand at most, was tribal warfare. Using it to project the global dynamics between China and the US in the 21st century is no more relevant than modelling World War III after the Great Mafia War in Sicily. 

More significantly, China’s foreign policy has been different from — even opposite to — Western imperial traditions for at least a couple of millennia.

中国永远不会统治世界




修昔底德陷阱这个饶舌名词,近年常被引用来推算中美博弈,我认为并不合适。

两千四百多年前,生活在今天希腊一带的修昔底德先生悉心研究当地的斗争史后,发现了一个春秋常规:每当新旧霸权交替之际,都难免大战一场。且不论修昔先生的观察是否独具心得,从规模和复杂性来看,用当年希腊城邦的经验来估计今天错综复杂的中美关系,有如采用黑帮火拼记录来预测第三次世界大战,十分牵强。

修昔底德年代的斯巴达和雅典城邦,男女老幼加起来才一共几十万人,全民穿上凉鞋厮杀,也顶多算得上是有规模的部落战事。再者,西方的争霸传统与中国大秦以后的外交方针有基本分别,甚至完全相反。

Sunday 8 March 2020

Hong Kong Tomorrow



Many people are asking when will Hong Kong get better. To answer, we must clarify what Hong Kong and better mean. This clarification is fundamental and necessary, not pedantic or rhetorical. Without any notion of Hong Kong, and better, the question is meaningless.

If Hong Kong means the 1100 square kilometres of landmass, then it will remain largely the same, assuming no climatic or geological catastrophes.

If you see Hong Kong as an entity defined by performance indexes and its currency, then you’ve got a huge black cloud, though not without its silver lining.

香港明天




很多人都问香港什么时候会复原。香港市民有这关切很合情理,但很多关心人也没有想过何谓 ‘香港’,和心目中的 ‘复原’ 是什么。我问这些基本问题并非咬文嚼字,也不是故意刁难。希望香港明天更好,但对 ‘香港’ 和 ‘好’ 没有足够认识的话,整个问题基本上没有意义,当然没有答案。

假如 ‘香港’ 是这一千一百多平方公里的土地的话,那么除非发生巨大地壳变动,否则随时五亿年不变,不用担心。

假如你认为 ‘香港’ 是被一堆人为指数定义的经济体,那么前景暂时不大乐观,不过危中有机,长远看不一定是坏事。

Thursday 9 January 2020

Manufacturing Demons


Demonisation of adversaries and dissidents, a favourite device of the Anglo Empire, has been developed and overused to absurd levels by the American Empire. The world needs to better understand how it works.

Remember Slobodan Milosevic of former Yugoslavia? Hardly anyone does. According to the IPC — Imperial Press Corp, aka Mainstream Media — and “Human Rights” NGOs, he was the “Butcher of Balkans”, the most talented monster after Fuehrer Hitler, an ardent ethnic cleanser and, of course, a rapist whenever he took breaks from murdering innocent women and children — Muslims, as usual. He was imprisoned in 2001, when the breaking up of Yugoslavia had been set in motion, and the potential emergence of a sizeable and independent-thinking European nation aborted. 

制妖编魔记



妖魔化对手是大英帝国的拿手把戏。美国称霸之后,更把这传统伎俩极限发挥,值得世人花点时间关注,认真了解。

相信记得前南斯拉夫领导米洛舍维奇的人不多了。在西方政治家,传媒集团和各式各样的“人权组织”的大量报告中,米洛舍维奇被形容为“巴尔干屠夫”,是自希特勒先生以来最有天分的顶级“魔头”。他专长种族清洗,屠杀无辜妇孺,集体乱葬。受害者照惯例都是西方人最关爱的回教人士。

米先生在2001年被收监审讯。当时南斯拉夫已经注定要四分五裂,一个很有潜力但不大听话的欧洲大国切底被打胎切碎,任何人都没有能力挽救了。2007年,当时的国际法庭主席亲自宣布米先生的“反人类战争罪行”证据确凿。2010年,美国的“生命杂志”把米洛舍维奇列为全球最糟的独裁者之一,实至名归。

意想不到的事情来了。米洛舍维奇在2006年于荷兰监狱离奇死去之后11年,海牙法庭竟然静悄悄宣布米先生无辜。大魔头种族清洗这事情只不过误会一场,嘻嘻,大家当没有发生过便好了【链接】