《港版国安法》出台，越看越精彩。本来觉得事情已经在专业领导手中，无需边吃瓜边插嘴了，但我对一些执行细节和目标的臆想，好像没有什么人谈及，所以忍不住又要多口。
港式汉奸只不过一群贪生怕死的小人，对国际政治文化毫无认识，以为蟑螂可以假借纸老虎发威，愚蠢程度不可思议。现在看见国安法的影子，屁滚尿流鸟兽散是意料中事，不值一提。既然不值一提，那就不浪费篇幅了。
我倒觉得一般港人和香港的所谓“建制派”应该清楚认识这重大里程碑，把握时机，停止投机取巧，为香港的复原和真正回归做实事。假如政棍一族以为有阿爷作靠山，可以继续不务正业，单靠一声“爱国”指天笃地的话，则大错特错矣。
Most of us have been too busy making money to give it much thought. To diehard capitalists, money is everything, something which one can never have too much of. But is it?
What is money?
Money is a trade medium and value unit. I have a cow; you have a hundred bushels of onion. You want to eat beef, while I need onion for my soup, but we still can’t barter successfully. With money, you can buy my cow. I used a small portion of the proceeds to buy a kilo of onion from you, and save the rest for other things. Unfortunately, some people get stuck in the process, and hang on to the money, the more the better — feeling rich is a great capitalistic feeling.
Once upon a time, shells were used as currency in China (except in coastal areas, I assume). I can imagine some people selling all their cows for a good price, and plan their retirements accordingly. Then came Qin Shi Huang, who invented a national currency. Suddenly, Tycoon Wang with a houseful of shells couldn’t buy a steamed bun with it. Overnight, he was broke.
Hyperinflation
When people have lost confidence in a currency, hyperinflation results. History has witnessed hyperinflation multiple times in nearly every country — from China to America, Israel to Germany. In the 1940s, my father had to carry baskets of money to the market. Vendors weighed the bills in exchange for vegetables, rather than wasting time counting them filthy notes.
Once confidence in a currency has collapsed, money is just paper — wastepaper.
What is money without economic activities?
Practically nothing. Imagine being a fugitive banker stuck in an island without import and export, and very little production. Your suitcase of dollars is only good for counting and recounting to kill time.
A common misconception is that if a country manages to produce everything in this world, and eventually monopolise the global “free” market, it will eventually make all the money in the world, and be rich beyond imagination. But what could this country do with the money? Mostly just to buy things from itself, using money printed by others. This country would become a global slave with lots of “money”.
A healthy equilibrium is when there is true multi-polar productivity, from everyone's perspective.
The USD Formula
How did the greenback become the international reserve currency? Confidence of course. In the beginning, that confidence had a lot do with American innovation, productivity and military power. Anyone who wanted some of the great stuff from America better go make some US dollars. Otherwise, no matter how much Congolese Francs you offered, they won’t sell. Gradually, under the influence of human nature and due devolution, America decided to let others sweat. They focused on printing money instead, and became addicted to it.
But what would happen when the world doesn’t need American dollars for all the good things available elsewhere? Henry Kissinger had a good idea. If all the oil producers accept only American dollars, then demand for the currency can be sustained, as everyone needs oil. The Petrodollar was born. What if some oil producers refuse? Ask Saddam Hussein of Iraq, Gaddafi of Libya, Iran, and Venezuela.
American Debts
The mind-numbing mechanics by which USD is generated has been well explained by numerous pundits. I wish to focus on a fatuous threat brandished by some really dumb politicians: sequester China’s one trillion plus American bonds. Sure, go ahead.
Let’s first see how China ends up with so much American dollars.
There are two main sources: foreign investment and trade surplus. Foreign investors come to China to build factories, taking with them a bunch of dollars. They must first exchange it to the Chinese currency RMB. Greenback becomes red notes — paper for paper. With RMB in hand, they can now rent land, build factories, hire workers, and start production. Employment is created, invigorating the economy.
China uses the greenback received to buy oil, minerals, advanced equipment, computer chips, soybeans, GM corn etc. — whatever it needs. What’s left is saved in US Treasury Bonds. America of course knows that money without use is as good as garbage, so whatever China wants to buy in America would be re-classified as something with security significance.
After spending as much as possible on purchases and foreign aids, China still has about one trillion stashed away in US Treasury Bonds. It sounds like a huge sum, and it is. But the true value of this money — value which can only be realised through labour and participation — has long been realised inside China, and multiplied manyfold. What’s left is mostly, you know, just money with no immediate purpose.
Furthermore, if the US robbed this phantom wealth from China, will other debt owners just watch and exclaim? And what would happen if China as a result has no option but to refuse USD for trade? Would the Middle East revolt at the same time? In that scenario, we can quite safely assume that the Great American Empire would falter dramatically. American taxpayers spent two trillion on Iraq for reasons only they understand. To bring down the most warlike Empire on Earth for a trillion would be a fantastic deal.
Widespread war waged by an irate Empire is of course a concern. But how many countries can it invade with its kamikaze F35? More importantly, the Euro and Yen, even the Pound Sterling, have been waiting for their rightful share in the currency basket for a long long time, while getting bullied by Big Brother.
The Greenback’s Final Assault
According to the Washington Post, which is not always credible, the mysterious financial mechanism in America has produced about six trillion new money to jump start the post Covid-19 economy. Some say it’s only three trillion — only three trillion! Has anyone seen the money?
In modern America, nobody knows where any money goes. I can only venture a wild guess. Money is not the true substance of wealth; only labour and productivity can sustain prosperity. But under the current world order, money, especially American money, can still buy ownership of productivity and resources. Now that the greenback’s days are numbered, its printers are working overtime to produce prodigious amounts of it, to buy up as much as they can.
If that’s true, we’ll see hyperinflation of assets and equities for a while, followed by hyper-devaluation of the USD — the most effective way to default on the Empire’s impossible debts.
James Tam 2020.06.09
国际上有关钱的假动作太多，令人眼花缭乱，心惊胆跳，不敢看不敢想。但我对恐怖事物有偏爱，决定把碎片拼合，组织自己的幻觉。
钱是交易的媒介和等量单位。假如我有一头牛，你有一百擔洋葱，虽然你想吃牛肉，我想吃洋葱，但以货易货很难成交。有货币作媒介，你可以用钱买我的牛，我只用一少部分收入跟你买一斤洋葱，余款用来买其他东西，或储蓄起来。古代的内陆居民曾用贝壳担当货币功能。但假如有人把辛苦养大的牛通通好价卖掉，一心做个“守贝奴”过世的话，会在秦始皇出现后瞬间破产，只剩下一箩箩的贝壳。昨天足够买整栋房子的宝贝，今天买不到一个馒头。
人们对一种货币失去信心，便会导致恶性通胀，这在秦始皇之后发生过 N 次，几乎所有国家，由中国到美国，以色列到德意志，都经历过。我父亲的一代，解放前也有过一斤钱换一斤菜的经历，钱不值钱的时候，大家也懒得数了。
货币的交易功能全凭信心和管理支撑。货币一旦失去公信便成废纸，或废电子。
什么也不是。 试想你有亿亿万世人热爱的金钱，但生活在一个与世隔绝的荒岛。孤岛没有生产，没有进出口贸易，你的钱什么也买不到，只可以用来擦屁股。
由此可以引申到一个较常见的错觉：有人以为国家早晚有能力生产一切，到时把全世界的钱都赚回来：哇！发达啰！他们没有想过赚回来的钱用来干嘛。拿着大量外币跟自己买波鞋？所以，全球分工是必然现象，也是我们希望的现象，否则情愿闭关。当然，战略性物资和生产能力一定要掌握在自己手中，但其余的生产力和市场份额，按比例合理分配才是健康的财富平衡。整体市场份额过大，大小通杀，只不过劳役自己。换来一大堆没出路的钱，比便秘更难受更伤身。
美元靠什么称霸呢？早期靠全球一致的信心，而信心来自美国当年庞大的创造力，生产力，和军事能力。想买美国出产的好东西？先赚点儿美元再说吧，否则你给更多刚果法郎也不卖，就是那么简单。后来美国吃太饱，竟然想出妙招：干活那么辛苦，何不让人家流汗，自己拼命印刷大家都接受了的美元，便可以呼风唤雨，空手套白狼，过瘾！
但这样下去，美国出产的好东西越来越少，美元需求自然减退，怎生是好？基辛格聪明，搞了石油美元。在全世界买原油都要用美元结算，美元还愁没需求？那么卖石油的不接受美元怎办？这方面可以找个灵媒，向伊拉克的侯赛因和利比亚的卡塔菲讨教一下。随着时代进步，霸主无所事事，想出来的洗劫方式五花百门，不胜枚举。这里只不过以卡通形式点出大纲。
美债故事和美元的生产工序已经有很多真懂的人介绍过。有兴趣可以网上搜寻。我想探讨的是很多国人担心的问题：假如美国把我们万多亿的美债一口吞了怎办？血汗钱哦！
先看看我们为什么有这么多美元，和这些美元的血汗值。
中国手中的美元有两个大来源：外国投资和贸易顺差。美国公司拿着一叠美元来华投资，找人代替出汗，但美元不能在中国通用，唯有去人民银行兑换，绿纸换红纸，两不相欠。换过我们定价的人民币之后，投资者租地招工盖工厂，把生产力和经验转移到中国，提升工业能力，制造就业，打开市场，搞活经济。谢谢。
人民银行拿着这些美元，四处购买原油矿石，大豆芯片，多余的便暂买美债。但中国人勤奋，生产力强，手上的美元越来越多，一部分发放到一带一路建设，助人助己，一举数得。偶尔会有几个穷兄弟无力偿还。这不打紧，看远一点，迟些再算。江湖上多交几个朋友，得道多助，反正美元是名副其实的身外物。
一万亿美债听来数目惊人，但金钱能够换来的“内涵”价值，早在中国落地生根，开枝散叶，多年来翻了不知几十倍了。贸易顺差赚来的美元得益相对较少，但原理相近。所以，能够及时适量减持美债最好，否则也并非世界末日。
再者，美国够胆赖债吗？抢了中国持的美债，其他国家会若无其事吗？要知道，财富的基础是生产，是资源，不是纸币。假如强抢导致中国停止接受美元，一切交易用人民币、其它可信货币或实物资源进行；又假如石油大国趁机起义，也拒收美元的话，帝国就此完蛋。根据美国专家估计，他们打伊拉克一共消耗了两万亿。能够以一万亿纸币的代价打垮纸老虎的话，简直便宜得有点儿过意不去。
霸主一怒之下，为美钞而战怎办？飞几次掉一次的超级神风战机F35，能打多少个国家？更重要的是，欧罗日元一大堆都会乘虚而入，在全球新秩序霸一席位。绝大部分的纸扎盟友们除了嘴巴响亮，会两肋插刀帮助多年来把自己欺负得难过死的大佬吗？
华盛顿邮报（https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/15/coronavirus-economy-6-trillion/）估算美国为了疫情，过去几个月一共狂印六万亿。不理他三万五万还是六万亿，这些疯狂数字已经毫无意义，也令大众失去感觉。这货币海啸据说是用来抗疫，刺激经济，太搞笑了吧！美国老百姓反正一毛钱也见不到。那么钱都哪去呢？美国人民都不知道，我怎会知道？
但我不介意胡乱猜度：纸币只是财富的暂时缓冲，生产力和资源才是真正的财富。但暂时来说，在资本主义主导的秩序下，虚无的纸币仍然可以购买生产力和资源的拥有权。心知美元命不久矣的大佬们于是决定发难，赶紧在临危一刻找个借口疯狂发钞，以无限美元全球抢购，把随时可变废纸的货币转换成资产。在几万亿美元洪水的冲击下，股票资产飙升的话，完全不犯逻辑。
大冲洗一轮之后，随之而来的是美元大贬值。这是最实在的赖债方式：昨天你借我一亿，价值整栋洋房，今天我还你一亿，只可以买间狗屋。
谭炳昌 2020.06.07
